Putin has the ability to advance his interests in many different ways. Sometimes tactical diplomacy can help.
The idea is that Putin-Trump would be a win-win for the Kremlin, as they have mutual interests and alliances.
The real concern for the Russians is that they're going to get closed out, that there's gong to be a new 'Iron Curtain'... for European expansion and all of its institutional forms.
There is certainly this widespread anti-Americanism within the Russian elite, a feeling that the U.S. lost any moral high ground it could possibly have because of Iraq, Abu Ghraib, and increasing concern of U.S. intentions locally.
Obama is under incredible pressure to supply arms to Ukraine.
There's no prospect that the Russians are going to send Snowden back. Snowden is in the land of spy swaps now. Putin is not going to give this guy up for nothing.
You could say that by standing up to Russia, the U.S. is finally getting some balls.
People in Washington, D.C., may not be paying that much attention to what's happening in Chechnya, but people in Riyadh and Amman and elsewhere are.
Chechnya was part of that whole wave of entities of the Soviet Union that had a very separate sense of identity, of political and social history, that set them apart from the rest of Russia.
Chechens need to be able to develop their own viable political society and regional economy whether they remain part of Russia or not.
Tough sanctions would mean saying to BP, Exxon, Chevron, Shell, Boeing and Siemens that they can't do business in Russia.
The Cold War was obviously driven by a very intense ideological struggle that was very clearly defined.
The Russian leadership doesn't operate in the same way as ours does. Informal networks have a much more important role to play than formal networks.
Every military scenario that the Russians basically engage in their annual exercises, either on their western or eastern flank, always involved some kind of local revolt pulling in outside forces.
And being forceful with the United States and not letting the United States have its way, is always good politics in the Russian domestic environment.
I don't want to suggest that Trump is emulating Putin. Trump is his own creation.
Trump knows how to play the media all on his own. He creates his own Twitter feed and uses it. He knows how to get the media's attention without the benefit of a state-controlled media. He does it all on his own. Trump understands how a free media works.
A U.S. president who is elected amid controversy and recrimination, reviled by a large segment of the electorate, and mired in domestic crises will be hard-pressed to forge a coherent foreign policy and challenge Russia.
Putin is trying to create the best possible atmosphere for Russia.
Putin has become the wild card in his own system.
