We really can't forecast all that well, and yet we pretend that we can, but we really can't.
People don't realize that we cannot forecast the future. What we can do is have probabilities of what causes what, but that's as far as we go. And I've had a very successful career as a forecaster, starting in 1948 forward. The number of mistakes I have made are just awesome. There is no number large enough to account for that.
We futurists have a magic button. We follow every statement about a failed forecast with 'yet.'
Whenever I see a forecast written out to two decimal places, I cannot help but wonder if there is a misunderstanding of the limitations of the data, and an illusion of precision.
In 2009, it was forecast that the number of single-person households would increase by two million in 10 years, suggesting that social isolation will only get worse.
I'll admit that I'm not quite certain how to sum up an entire year in music anymore; not when music has become so temporal, so specific and personal, as if we each have our own weather system and what we listen to is our individual forecast.
Workers and jobs are naturally heterogeneous, and the quality of their interaction when paired is difficult to forecast.
If you have to forecast, forecast often.
No one can escape the iron rule that once you make a forecast, you know you're going to be wrong; you just don't know when and in which direction!
If we're going to forecast the business cycle, surely it is a good idea to know the business cycle. Sounds reasonable, but it's not that easy.
