Performance or no performance, perceptions do matter. More so the voters's perceptions on the performance of their state governments.
Opinion polls sponsored by newspapers were traditionally meant to bring to the fore the mood of the people objectively.
Contrary to general expectations, caste, regionalism, criminalisation, and parochial interests continue to sway the nation.
I have been a close observer of campaign trends.
Pre-poll surveys receive different reaction in the media among voters and political parties. For example, the more undecided voters are, the greater the role and effect of pre-poll surveys. Similarly, greater the decline of the party system, the more influential their role.
Poll results published with a clear byline for the research reflect a higher degree of confidence in the survey.
A poll survey should indicate at the outset whether it is meant to capture opinions and beliefs for preferences and practices or value and perceptions.
Opinion polls often suffer on account of unexpected developments once the electoral process starts, such as the death of a political leader (as in the case of the late Rajiv Gandhi).
Elections, in India, are 'over to the people' time. And it is probably the one time in their lives when politicians, and political parties, of all hues walk the razor edge of panic.
During their tenure, the elected representatives of the people walk with the gods. And it is only when an election is announced that they realise it is the people in their constituencies, with whom they have not really bothered to keep in touch, who will decide their fate.
Very obviously, the electorate as a mass has not imbibed the philosophy of 'think national, act local' or even 'think big and beyond' - it is a case, more, of 'think local, act local, and let the national equation take care of itself.'
Pre-poll and exit polls have now become a commercial proposition. No longer are they viewed as means for a debate or means for enriching the voters and improving the quality of political campaigns. They have become yet another way of manipulation.
The issue of coverage of pre-poll surveys should not be mixed with the freedom of press. Having guidelines does not violate any fundamental right nor implies any restriction on this freedom. 'Media power' should not be misused with the help of pre-poll surveys.
Influencing voters is the crux of all poll campaigns.
Banning pre-poll surveys is certainly no answer in today's world. Sensitising the public and the media as to the good, bad, and desirable aspects of survey research is more sensible than that.
